Insights

Warm Homes Plan, ECO4 & the Next 12–18 Months for Installers

Written by Madeline O'Brien | Nov 27, 2025 3:25:52 PM

If you’re a UK installer working in ECO right now, there’s a good chance the last few announcements have made you pause.

You have built teams, trained workers, and invested in compliance. You have also kept homes warm during one of the largest retrofit programs in the UK. So it’s completely reasonable to ask:

What happens to demand, standards, and margins as Warm Homes ramps up and ECO4 shifts phase?

This blog aims to clear up confusion. It will confirm what has really changed. We will discuss what this means for installers.

Let’s be clear on ECO4 timing

There’s been confusion in the market, so here’s the confirmed position from Ofgem.

ECO4 runs until 31 March 2026, split into four phases. The current phase timeline is:

  • Phase 3: 1 April 2024 → 31 March 2025
  • Phase 4: 1 April 2025 → 31 March 2026 

So yes, Phase 3 ends March 2025, but ECO4 itself continues into Phase 4.

The Government has also talked about extending ECO4 by 6 to 9 months past March 2026. This is to prevent problems for households and the supply chain. That’s a clear signal they’re aware of installer capacity and stability.

Installer takeaway: There is no sudden change in March 2025. However, a transition year is coming. Transitions can cause pipelines to wobble.

Why the Warm Homes rollout can cause short-term volatility 

The Warm Homes Plan delivers a multi-year framework (not a single scheme switch). Government guidance confirms it will scale through local delivery routes with combined authorities, councils, and devolved partners.

When a programme changes at this size, installers usually feel a bedding-in period:

  • new rules and eligibility
  • new delivery partners and referral routes
  • revised sign-off processes
  • homeowners needing time to understand what’s available

Even a “small” pause at policy level can feel massive on site when vans and teams need work booked 6–8 weeks ahead. That’s not pessimism, it’s how construction demand behaves during system change.

Installer takeaway: If the market seems uneven through 2025, that is a normal change. It does not mean that retrofit demand is going away.

The biggest shift for installers:

Warm Homes is being built after some very public ECO quality failures, especially in solid wall insulation.

DESNZ published audit results showing abnormally high non-compliance rates in some ECO4 and GBIS installations. That triggered expanded re-inspections and government intervention.

In Parliament, ministers have said that Warm Homes will create one system of oversight. This system will have consistent standards and processes for installers. It will focus on getting things right the first time. 

What that likely means day-to-day:

  • more audits and evidence trails
  • tighter use of certification routes like MCS / TrustMark
  • less tolerance for variation between delivery partners
  • longer compliance lead times as checks increase
  • a bigger burden on admin, photos and paperwork

And while most installers already work to a high standard, it’s fair to say:

"Even the best installers are going to feel the extra load too."

If you’ve spent years doing things properly, it can be frustrating to carry more scrutiny because of past bad actors. But there’s also an upside: a stricter regime usually rewards businesses that are already well-run.

Installer takeaway: Compliance is becoming a competitive advantage. The firms that treat quality systems as part of their sales story will stand out.

The confirmed positives that help with sales.

0% VAT remains in place until March 2027

The temporary zero-rate VAT on energy-saving materials will last until 31 March 2027. After that, it will go back to 5%. This includes solar PV, batteries, insulation and heat pumps. 

This is a direct benefit for homeowners who can pay. This is especially true for those deciding between a retrofit now or waiting for the next plan.

BUS expanded on 18 November 2025

The Government has officially expanded the Boiler Upgrade Scheme to include:

  • air-to-air heat pumps
  • heat batteries 

Practically, that means:

  • more properties become viable installs
  • more tech options for awkward stock
  • more conversations you can say “yes” to

Installer takeaway: there’s still a wide grant-supported route for low-carbon heat, and the tech list is growing, not shrinking.

Demand is strong, but conversions will stay messy

Government and Ofgem reports show that public interest in low-carbon upgrades is strong. They have kept and increased BUS budgets. ECO remains the largest delivery channel by volume.

But installers know the truth behind the headline stats:

Lots of homeowners enquire. But they don't all proceed.

Typical causes (and you’ll recognise these):

  • Homeowners pull out late 
  • Eligibility fails at the check stage
  • Survey delays or supply chain gaps kill momentum
  • People shop around for months, then go quiet
  • Some just want a quote “to see what it costs”

Installer takeaway: The market exists, but the winners will be the businesses that build trust. They will guide customers through uncertainty, not just provide quick quotes.

What the UK installer market is likely to feel like in 2025–2026

Pulling all this together, the next 12–18 months are likely to bring:

  • waves of demand, not a smooth curve
  • more competition
  • heightened scrutiny on quality and paperwork
  • longer lead times in certification and sign-off
  • bigger importance of customer experience and education

This is the part where installers feel the pressure most: You can do everything right and still see an inconsistent pipeline.

That’s why resilience now isn’t about guessing policy; it’s about building a model that can sell in more than one channel.

Why able-to-pay matters more now

If Warm Homes rollout causes even a temporary slowdown, subsidy/grant-reliant installers may need to:

  • diversify sales routes
  • tighten conversion
  • build a clearer homeowner value story
  • strengthen trust at higher ticket prices

Able-to-pay doesn’t replace Grant Schemes, it stabilises you alongside them.

Installer takeaway: Installers who adapt quickly often protect their profits and keep their teams busy during changes.

How Elcap supports installers through market change

At Elcap, we’re a team of strategists, UX designers, website specialists, brand strategists, Marketers and creatives.

We are HubSpot Gold Partners, but we also have experience with other CRMs like Salesforce and Pipedrive.

We have worked with renewable energy and energy installers during policy changes like this before. We help businesses shift from relying on subsidies to confident, self-sustaining growth.

We support with:

  • Go-to-market strategy and positioning
  • High-converting website and UX journeys
  • Brand strategy and creative direction to build homeowner trust
  • HubSpot CRM setup and pipeline automation
  • Sales enablement: training, sequences, templates and process support

Not to “rebrand for the sake of it,” but to build a sales engine that works even when policy demand moves in waves.

Final thought

If you’re feeling unsure right now, you’re not alone.

These transitions are hard, especially when you’ve got teams to keep busy and reputations to protect.

ECO4 will continue until 2026. The government supports Warm Homes. VAT relief is still a strong sales tool. BUS has grown instead of shrunk.

The installers who adapt early will be the ones still thriving when Warm Homes fully scales.

If you want to talk through what this means for your business, we’re here.

Book a call: https://www.elcap.agency/meetings/madeline-o-brien